The Impact of Political Change on the Crypto Industry

The Impact of Political Change on the Crypto Industry

A recent analysis by 10x Research has raised concerns about the potential consequences of President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race. According to the firm, former President Donald Trump could secure a “decisive victory” in the November election if no credible candidate emerges to challenge him. This prediction has significant implications for both the political landscape and the crypto industry, as a Trump administration is seen as more pro-crypto, potentially leading to changes in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) leadership.

Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x, highlighted the historical pattern of SEC chairs resigning during transitions between administrations. He suggested that under a Trump administration, SEC Chair Gary Gensler is likely to resign within the first two months of 2025, well before his term officially ends in June 2026. Previous transitions, such as those involving Mary Jo White, Christopher Cox, and Harvey Pitt, have shown a similar pattern of early resignations due to political pressure. Thielen believes that a Trump presidency would bring an end to Gensler’s role at the SEC, given the administration’s pro-crypto stance.

The anticipated leadership changes at the SEC could lead to new perspectives and policies regarding the oversight of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. A pro-crypto administration is expected to create a more favorable regulatory framework for digital assets, promoting growth and innovation within the industry. Thielen pointed to several bullish catalysts for the crypto market, including the potential launch of spot Ethereum ETFs and rumors of Trump making a surprise announcement at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville on July 25. Industry insiders speculate that Trump might endorse Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset and address regulatory challenges faced by the industry.

Market Outlook and Bitcoin’s Value

Thielen suggested that any announcement by Trump at the Bitcoin conference could trigger a “parabolic” rise in Bitcoin’s value. He advised investors against taking profits or shorting BTC before Trump’s speech, indicating that Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of $68,300 could serve as a key level for future price action. At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $68,100, up 1.1% over the past hours, nearing its previous all-time highs. The total crypto market was valued at $2.46 trillion, with a 24-hour volume of $90.1 billion, and Bitcoin dominance stood at 54.50%.

The potential political change discussed in the 10x Research analysis could have significant ramifications for the crypto industry. The prospect of a Trump administration may bring about changes in SEC leadership and crypto regulation, creating new opportunities for growth and innovation. Investors and industry stakeholders are advised to closely monitor developments in both the political and crypto spheres to navigate potential shifts in the market landscape.

Regulation

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