Ethereum’s price has been consolidating above the 100 and 200-day moving averages, signaling a bullish trend in the market. The price broke above the critical 100-day moving average at $3,354 and entered a period of sideways fluctuation, indicating an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. However, with the launch of spot ETH ETFs and a significant net inflow of $106.6 million on their first day, an increase in buying interest is expected, potentially leading to a continuation of the bullish rally. The primary target for buyers is the wedge’s upper boundary at $3.7K, suggesting a bullish breakout in the mid-term.
4-Hour Chart Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum buyers have struggled to breach the previous major swing high of $3.5K, facing selling pressure and resulting in sideways consolidation. The price has formed an ascending wedge pattern during this period, typically indicating a bearish reversal. However, given the prevailing bullish sentiment in the market, a resurgence in demand is anticipated, potentially leading to a break above the wedge. In case of an unexpected bearish breakout, the price could undergo a short-term retracement before continuing its bullish move. This bearish scenario might provide an opportunity for participants to accumulate ETH at lower prices.
On-Chain Metrics and Investor Behavior
With Ethereum’s price recovering from below the $3K mark and the launch of ETH Spot ETFs, analyzing investor behavior using on-chain metrics can provide insights into the recent recovery and future trends. The Ethereum Exchange Reserve metric, which measures the amount of ETH held in exchange wallets, indicates key trends in investor behavior. A decrease in exchange reserves suggests accumulation by holders, as coins are withdrawn for long-term storage, while an increase indicates investors depositing coins for selling. Recent data shows a rapid decline in exchange reserves, especially after the news of Spot ETFs launch, implying that large investors are buying the dip and withdrawing their coins for long-term holding. This reduction in available supply, combined with rising buying interest due to Spot ETFs, hints at a sustained rally in the future.
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